Infrastructure 2027: New administration inherits R$ 228 billion in projects, but without the market's "prime" assets

The winner of the Brazilian presidential election will take office with an immediate challenge in the infrastructure sector: attracting private capital to a multi-billion dollar portfolio of projects with lower economic viability. After a cycle of concessions focused on major highway corridors and highly profitable assets—the so-called "prime" (or "filés")—the horizon for 2027 demands new contractual models. The Ministry of Transport is planning 11 highway auctions totaling R$ 55 billion, while the railway portfolio projects R$ 160 billion, and the electricity sector is preparing a transmission auction worth R$ 13 billion for April 2027. The scenario poses a trial by fire for the new government's financial engineering.

The end of the "prime" assets and the need for new models

Between 2023 and October 2026, Brazil held 25 highway auctions, focusing on assets with high commercial attractiveness, such as the Régis Bittencourt and Fernão Dias highways. This strategy ensured robust investments, but left regional networks and lower-traffic projects, whose balance sheets do not close solely with toll collections, for the next administration.

To make the nine new concessions and two contractual optimizations planned for 2027 viable, experts point out that the traditional model is exhausted. João Paulo Pessoa, a partner at Toledo Marchetti Advogados, highlights that the size of Brazil requires different modeling. The solution lies in public-private partnerships (PPPs), direct public contributions, and "light concessions"—contracts focused only on maintenance and specific interventions, eliminating the immediate requirement for duplications that increase tolls.

Ronei Glanzmann, CEO of MoveInfra, reinforces that the continuity of projects must be a priority. According to the executive, attracting regional investors and leveraging financing via debentures will be essential moves to maintain the sector, which he compares to a transatlantic ship: "it takes a long time to gain traction, but once it does, it cruises along."

The math of sanitation in times of high interest rates

The basic sanitation sector faces the same dilemma between commercial viability and public necessity. For 2027, the Brazilian Association of Sanitation Companies (Abcon) projects two large sewage PPPs in Goiás and Rio Grande do Norte, totaling R$ 10.3 billion.

However, the rising cost of credit and the commitment of capital from large operators have changed market dynamics. Carlos Lebelein, a partner at LMDM Consultoria, warns that companies will begin to examine new opportunities with greater rigor, especially after recent episodes of "desert" auctions, such as the one in Rondônia.

"The next government may change sanitation priorities, but it cannot change the math of the contracts," says Lebelein. He stresses that risks must be remunerated and tariffs must be sustainable, pointing to the BNDES (Brazilian Development Bank) and the capital market as crucial vectors for universalization.

Christianne Dias, CEO of Abcon, adds that legal certainty is non-negotiable. For sanitation to advance, it is imperative that long-term concessions are not reviewed with every change of government.

Bottlenecks in transmission and energy innovation

If there is a lack of coverage in sanitation, the problem in the energy sector is distributing what is already produced. The Brazilian bottleneck today lies in transmission, which directly affects the country's industrial planning.

The National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) has scheduled a transmission auction valued at R$ 13 billion for April 2027. The great technological differentiator of this tender is the unprecedented inclusion of battery storage systems, an innovation aimed at stabilizing the grid in the face of the intermittency of renewable sources.

Victor Hugo Iocca, director of Abrace Energia, points to a critical timing mismatch: while industry needs immediate energy, new transmission projects take five to seven years to become operational.

To attract energy-intensive consumers, such as data centers and mining companies, Luiz Barroso, CEO of PSR, defends bitter but necessary measures. He argues that it is necessary to "cut into the bone" and eliminate tariff subsidies that have already served their purpose, as today they only make the general tariff more expensive and distort consumption decisions.

Railways and ports in the waiting line

In logistics infrastructure beyond highways, the Ministry of Transport has a railway portfolio of R$ 160 billion divided into eight concession proposals. Four of them have auctions scheduled for 2027: the Southeast Railway Ring, the West Network, Ferrogrão, and the East-West Corridor. The challenge here, according to Glanzmann, is to structure the financing of colossal works before operation begins and revenue is generated.

In ports, the top priority for the government transition will be the auction of Tecon 10, a strategic asset waiting for bureaucratic unlocking.

Impacts for the market and the population

• For Investors: The end of obvious concessions requires much stricter risk calculations. The market will have to deal with "light concessions" and rely heavily on State guarantees in PPPs.
• For Industry: The bottleneck in electricity transmission will continue to be a growth limiter in the short term, forcing companies to adapt their expansion schedules to the delivery times of new lines (5 to 7 years).
• For the Population: The success of PPPs will determine whether states like Goiás and Rio Grande do Norte will see improvements in sewage treatment, while users of secondary highways may see tolls focused only on asphalt maintenance, without major expansion works.

What remains unknown

Despite the clarity of the federal government's portfolio, some variables remain undefined and cause apprehension in the market:

• Impact of Tax Reform: Abcon warns that there is still a lack of clear rules on how the regulation of the tax reform will impact the financial modeling of long-term contracts in sanitation and highways.
• Regional Schedule: The fate of Block D in Alagoas regarding basic sanitation remains with an uncertain date, fluctuating between 2027 and the following year.
• Subsidy Balance: It is unclear how the next government will design "light concessions" regarding the exact balance between public money contribution and the limit on tariffs that the population can afford to pay.

What to expect next

In the first months of 2027, the focus will be on the formatting of the notices for the 11 highway auctions. The market is waiting to see if the Ministry of Transport will be able to package low-traffic stretches together with mechanisms to protect against government default (in the case of PPPs).

At the same time, in April 2027, the Aneel auction will serve as a thermometer for the adoption of large-scale batteries in the Brazilian electrical grid, shaping future transmission tenders.

Frequently asked questions

How many highway auctions are planned for 2027 and what is the value involved? There are 11 federal highway auctions scheduled for 2027 (nine new concessions and two optimizations), involving approximately R$ 55 billion in investments.

What are the "light concessions" suggested for highways? They are concession models focused strictly on pavement maintenance, signage, and specific safety interventions, without the requirement for large investments in duplication works. This allows roads with lower traffic flow to be made viable.

What is the main novelty of the energy transmission auction in April 2027? The Aneel auction, estimated at R$ 13 billion, will feature the unprecedented inclusion of batteries in the transmission infrastructure, aiming to ensure greater stability for the flow of energy generated by renewable sources.