The 2027 budget cannot be a snapshot, it must be a movie: the urgency of financial adaptation

The budget preparation for 2027 exposes the exhaustion of the traditional financial planning model, both in the private sector and in the Brazilian public sphere. In a scenario marked by rapid technological transformations driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and deep divergences in macroeconomic projections, corporate leaders and public managers face the need to abandon the static budget — the "snapshot" — in favor of a dynamic and adaptive model — the "movie." The inability to adjust routes in real time threatens the survival of innovation projects in companies and the execution of public policies by the government.

The convergence between economic uncertainty and technological revolution

For decades, the budgeting process meant projecting the previous year with marginal adjustments. However, this premise has stopped working. In the corporate environment, the pressure comes from technology, specifically AI, which redesigns costs and revenues in cycles of months, not years. In the public environment, the uncertainty stems from conflicting economic projections and the pressure for austerity combined with promises of new spending.

Marco Romero, CEO of Grupo Taking, argues that the problem is not forecasting incorrectly, but building a rigid process that treats the initial forecast as absolute truth. For 2027, the adaptive budget is based on scenarios, pre-defined decision triggers, and continuous forecasts.

On the government side, the 2027 Budget Bill (PLN 24/26) reflects this tension between what is planned and reality. While the economic team tries to set fixed numbers to signal fiscal responsibility, the market and the Legislature itself see a much more volatile scenario, requiring the State itself to rethink its flexibility in resource allocation.

Chronology of the 2027 budget impasse

The discussion on the feasibility and flexibility of the 2027 budgets gained definitive shape throughout October 2026:

• October 9, 2026: The Budget consultancies of the Chamber of Deputies and the Federal Senate publish a joint technical note pointing out serious divergences between government projections and those of the financial market present in PLN 24/26.
• October 19, 2026: In an interview, the Minister of Planning, Bruno Moretti, reaffirms that the 2027 fiscal target is "non-negotiable," indicating a gradual adjustment plan, despite market skepticism.
• October 30, 2026: Publication of Marco Romero's article, crystallizing in the private sector the thesis that rigid budgets are born outdated, especially in the face of the avalanche of investments in AI.

Concrete data: the abyss between government, market, and corporations

The debate about 2027 is guided by numbers that highlight the need for continuous adaptation. In the public sector, the divergence of expectations is glaring:

• Inflation: The government projects 3.6% for 2027. The financial market, in turn, projects 4.31%.
• Primary Result: PLN 24/26 predicts a primary surplus of R$ 14.22 billion, equivalent to 0.10% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Market projections, however, point to a persistent primary deficit.

In the private sector, the rush to invest runs up against a lack of governance. Data collected by Forrester, based on consultations with 2,600 global decision-makers, reveal that more than 80% of leaders expect an increased budget for 2027.

However, spending more is not spending better. A study by MIT Sloan points out that between 70% and 95% of generative AI pilot projects in companies fail to scale. The reason is not technological limitation, but weak governance and a lack of executive support.

Impact on the private and public sector

For C-levels (CFOs and CIOs): The relationship between finance and technology must change radically. The 2027 budget can no longer be a sequential exercise where the CIO asks and the CFO simply approves or cuts. They must create a joint agenda. The CFO brings capital discipline — how to protect margins and when to revise approvals. The CIO demonstrates the value generated in the language of return on investment. AI projects approved in October may need resizing in March, depending on the results of the pilots. If the company keeps the budget as a "snapshot," the 70% to 95% failure rate pointed out by MIT Sloan will become operational reality.

For Society and the Public Sector: The rigidity or inaccuracy of the budget directly affects the execution of essential public policies. Minister Bruno Moretti promised that the "zero fare" program on weekends will have a maximum cost of R$ 12 billion and will be fiscally neutral, using funds from parliamentary amendments. In addition, projection discrepancies affect the sizing of programs like Bolsa Família. If actual inflation follows the market projection (4.31%) instead of the government's (3.6%), the eroded purchasing power will require emergency reallocations that a static budget will hardly be able to handle without trauma.

What is still unknown

Despite the guidelines established in October 2026, critical gaps remain open:

• Tax rates: The government estimated revenues from the Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS) and the Selective Tax in the 2027 budget, but there is still no mathematical clarity or official disclosure regarding what the actual rates that will support this collection will be.
• Executive and Legislative conciliation: It is unclear how (or if) the government will absorb the criticisms from the Congressional consultancies' technical note in the final budget piece to avoid severe blocks and contingencies in the first half of 2027.
• Feasibility of Zero Fare: The reallocation of parliamentary amendments to pay for the R$ 12 billion of the zero fare depends on intense political negotiation, the outcome and practical transfer mechanism of which have not yet been detailed.

What to expect next

In the short term, technology companies and large IT integrators must adjust their sales pitches to CIOs and CFOs. The sale of AI projects will be linked to real-time Return on Investment (ROI) dashboards, allowing for the adoption of quarterly or even monthly financial triggers.

In the macroeconomic scenario, the coming weeks in the National Congress will be marked by the progress of PLN 24/26. Parliamentarians will use the inflation and GDP discrepancies to force the economic team to detail a plan B in case the surplus of R$ 14.22 billion does not materialize. Companies should closely monitor these votes, as any revenue shortfall by the government will affect interest rate policy and, consequently, the cost of capital for their own investments in 2027.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the main difference between the "snapshot" budget and the "movie" budget? The "snapshot" budget is the traditional, static model, where numbers are fixed at the end of the previous year and held rigidly. The "movie" budget is adaptive, operating with multiple scenarios, short continuous revisions, and decision triggers that allow resources to be reallocated as market or technology conditions change.

Why do most AI projects in companies fail at the pilot phase? According to an MIT Sloan study, 70% to 95% of AI pilot projects fail when attempting to scale not due to technical deficiency, but due to weak governance, lack of alignment between technology (CIO) and finance (CFO) areas, and the inability to absorb the pace of investment.

What is the Brazilian government's fiscal target for 2027? The Budget Bill (PLN 24/26) sent by the government provides for a primary surplus of R$ 14.22 billion, equivalent to 0.10% of GDP. The Minister of Planning, Bruno Moretti, declared that this target is non-negotiable, although Congressional consultancies and the financial market project a scenario of a primary deficit.